4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 2 at the 47

Green Bay Packers 7 – San Francisco 49ers 34

What Actually Happened

(:05) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 13-A.Lazard to SF 43 for 4 yards (24-K.Williams). SF-24-K.Williams was injured during the play. Caught at SF 43. 0-yac

The Three Options

GO +0.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.85 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.60 EP
KICK -1.12 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.75 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model