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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 3 at the 24

San Francisco 49ers 34 – Green Bay Packers 20

What Actually Happened

(3:36) 9-R.Gould 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +0.59 EP
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +2.63 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24, worth -1.47 EP
KICK +0.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.24 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 34, worth -2.01 EP
PUNT -0.99 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.99 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model