Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 20 at the 71

Green Bay Packers 0 – San Francisco 49ers 7

(2:31) 6-J.Scott punts 48 yards to SF 23, Center-43-H.Bradley. 13-R.James Jr. ran ob at SF 49 for 26 yards (37-J.Jackson).

The Three Options

GO -2.50 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.54 EP
75% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 71, worth -4.21 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model