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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 14 at the 36

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 9-R.Gould 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +0.08 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.57 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.62 EP
KICK +0.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.35 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model