4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 3 at the 68

Tennessee Titans 17 – Kansas City Chiefs 14

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 6-B.Kern punts 44 yards to KC 24, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 24-J.Lucas to KC 24 for no gain (53-D.Bates). PENALTY on KC-34-D.Thompson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at KC 24.

The Three Options

GO -0.74 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.53 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 68, worth -3.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.15 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 26, worth -1.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP