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Tennessee Titans

9-7 HC Mike Vrabel
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Kansas City Chiefs

12-4 HC Andy Reid
Sunday 2020-01-19 · 15:05 ET Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City US 🥶 Cold Spread 7.5 O/U 51.0

Win Probability

TEN
44.0%
KC
56.0%
🥶 Cold

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • TEN offense: +0.187 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • KC offense: +0.188 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • TEN defense: -0.022 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
  • QB edge to KC: Patrick Mahomes (KC) +0.220 vs Ryan Tannehill (TEN) +0.205 EPA/dropback

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

TEN 25 18–32
–
KC 26 19–33
Projected margin: KC by 1 Projected total: 51

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 20

TEN

Jayon Brown LB Questionable Shoulder
Jack Conklin T Questionable Shoulder
Rashaan Evans LB Questionable Foot
Cody Hollister WR Questionable Ankle
Adam Humphries WR Questionable Ankle
Adoree' Jackson CB Questionable Foot
David Long LB Questionable Knee

KC

Chris Jones DT Questionable Calf
LeSean McCoy RB Questionable Illness
Matt Moore QB Questionable Illness

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 20 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TEN 24
–
KC 35

Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:33 FG TEN (11:33) 7-G.Joseph 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. TEN 3 – KC 0
  • Q1 05:56 TD TEN (5:56) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 22-D.Henry. 22-D.Henry left tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 9 – KC 0
  • Q1 00:51 TD KC (:51) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 10-T.Hill for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 10 – KC 6
  • Q2 06:43 TD TEN (6:43) 71-D.Kelly reported in as eligible. 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 71-D.Kelly for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 16 – KC 7
  • Q2 04:07 TD KC (4:07) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 10-T.Hill for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 17 – KC 13
  • Q2 00:23 TD KC (:23) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles left end for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 17 – KC 20
  • Q4 14:54 TD KC (14:54) 26-Dam.Williams right end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 17 – KC 27
  • Q4 07:44 TD KC (7:44) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle to 14-S.Watkins for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN [50-D.Roberson]. Penalty on TEN-35-T.Brock, Defensive Holding, declined. TEN 17 – KC 34
  • Q4 04:24 TD TEN (4:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep middle to 86-A.Firkser for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 23 – KC 35

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 6 at the 12
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 96%

    (11:33) 7-G.Joseph 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 KC 4th & 10 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (10:09) 2-D.Colquitt punts 46 yards to TEN 33, Center-41-J.Winchester. 14-K.Raymond to TEN 42 for 9 yards (41-J.Winchester).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 TEN 4th & 2 at the 29
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 77%

    (7:13) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 10-A.Humphries to KC 26 for 3 yards (32-T.Mathieu; 53-A.Hitchens).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 KC 4th & 2 at the 28
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 79%

    (2:58) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce to TEN 24 for 4 yards (24-K.Vaccaro; 44-K.Correa).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 TEN 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 57%

    (2:00) 6-B.Kern punts 44 yards to KC 24, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 24-J.Lucas to KC 24 for no gain (53-D.Bates). PENALTY on KC-34-D.Thompson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at KC 24.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 KC 4th & 10 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 20%

    (11:08) 2-D.Colquitt punts 32 yards to TEN 21, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 14-K.Raymond.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 TEN 4th & 4 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (7:07) 6-B.Kern punts 42 yards to KC 20, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 17-M.Hardman to KC 27 for 7 yards (23-T.Smith).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 TEN 4th & 15 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (12:05) 6-B.Kern punts 53 yards to KC 12, Center-48-B.Brinkley, downed by TEN-53-D.Bates.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 TEN 4th & 8 at the 78
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.55 EP
    p(convert) 42%

    (6:07) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern pass short middle to 37-A.Hooker to 50 for 28 yards (17-M.Hardman).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 KC 4th & 14 at the 44 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 40%

    (2:15) 2-D.Colquitt punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 TEN 4th & 6 at the 65 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (1:28) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill sacked at TEN 18 for -17 yards (55-F.Clark).

    See the full breakdown →