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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 10 at the 53

Kansas City Chiefs 21 – Tennessee Titans 17

What Actually Happened

(11:08) 2-D.Colquitt punts 32 yards to TEN 21, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 14-K.Raymond.

The Three Options

GO -0.78 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.15 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 53, worth -2.96 EP
KICK -1.78 EP
  • 20% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 80% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.75 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 15, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model