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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 4 at the 62

Tennessee Titans 17 – Kansas City Chiefs 21

What Actually Happened

(7:07) 6-B.Kern punts 42 yards to KC 20, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 17-M.Hardman to KC 27 for 7 yards (23-T.Smith).

The Three Options

GO -0.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.05 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 62, worth -3.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 21, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model