Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 8 at the 78

Tennessee Titans 17 – Kansas City Chiefs 35

(6:07) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern pass short middle to 37-A.Hooker to 50 for 28 yards (17-M.Hardman).

The Three Options

GO -2.03 EP

What Happened

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.11 EP
58% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 78, worth -4.29 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.55 EP