4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 2 at the 28

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Tennessee Titans 10

What Actually Happened

(2:58) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce to TEN 24 for 4 yards (24-K.Vaccaro; 44-K.Correa).

The Three Options

GO +2.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.51 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 28, worth -0.97 EP
KICK +1.23 EP
  • 79% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 38, worth -1.89 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model