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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 10 at the 75

Tennessee Titans 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(13:39) 6-B.Kern punts 47 yards to ARI 28, Center-46-M.Cox. 4-R.Moore pushed ob at ARI 39 for 11 yards (41-K.Blasingame).

The Three Options

GO -1.86 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.29 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 75, worth -4.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 32, worth -1.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model