Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- Ryan Tannehill (TEN): -0.116 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- ARI crossing 2 time zone(s)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 1
ARI
TEN
Pulled fresh for 2021 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 26 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 09:26 FG ARI (9:26) 5-M.Prater 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee. ARI 3 – TEN 0
- Q1 08:18 TD ARI (8:18) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 10-D.Hopkins for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN [58-H.Landry]. ARI 9 – TEN 0
- Q2 11:03 TD ARI (11:03) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 10-D.Hopkins for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 16 – TEN 0
- Q2 06:54 TD TEN (6:54) 17-R.Tannehill scrambles up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 17 – TEN 6
- Q2 01:49 TD ARI (1:49) 1-K.Murray right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 23 – TEN 6
- Q3 12:59 TD TEN (12:59) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle to 11-A.Brown for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 24 – TEN 12
- Q3 10:45 TD ARI (10:45) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep right to 13-C.Kirk for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN-92-O.Adeniyi was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. ARI 30 – TEN 13
- Q3 03:11 TD ARI (3:11) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 13-C.Kirk for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 37 – TEN 13
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 TEN 4th & 10 at the 75Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(13:39) 6-B.Kern punts 47 yards to ARI 28, Center-46-M.Cox. 4-R.Moore pushed ob at ARI 39 for 11 yards (41-K.Blasingame).
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Q1 ARI 4th & 16 at the 16Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 23% p(FG) 94%
(9:26) 5-M.Prater 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.
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Q1 TEN 4th & 16 at the 81Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(6:54) 6-B.Kern punts 59 yards to ARI 22, Center-46-M.Cox. 4-R.Moore to ARI 35 for 13 yards (92-O.Adeniyi).
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Q1 ARI 4th & 3 at the 58Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 54%
(5:26) 14-A.Lee punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-46-A.Brewer, Touchback.
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Q1 TEN 4th & 4 at the 74Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 51%
(3:10) (Punt formation) 21-M.Farley pass short middle to 37-A.Hooker to TEN 32 for 6 yards (86-D.Harris).
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Q1 TEN 4th & 17 at the 75Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(:40) 6-B.Kern punts 45 yards to ARI 30, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.
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Q2 TEN 4th & 1 at the 28Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 67% p(FG) 80%
(:19) 8-M.Badgley 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-6-B.Kern.
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Q3 ARI 4th & 17 at the 60Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26%
(8:32) 14-A.Lee punts 50 yards to TEN 10, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.
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Q3 TEN 4th & 10 at the 49Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.89 EPp(convert) 33% p(FG) 30%
(:48) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill sacked at TEN 43 for -8 yards (55-C.Jones).
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Q4 ARI 4th & 4 at the 25Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44% p(FG) 85%
(11:08) 5-M.Prater 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.
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Q4 TEN 4th & 5 at the 34Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42% p(FG) 68%
(8:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass incomplete short right to 11-A.Brown [49-K.Fitts].
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Q4 ARI 4th & 7 at the 41 late-gameChose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.26 EPp(convert) 37% p(FG) 50%
(2:07) 14-A.Lee punts 36 yards to TEN 5, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-28-C.Washington. PENALTY on TEN-3-C.Farley, Offensive Holding, 2 yards, enforced at TEN 5.