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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 1 at the 28

Tennessee Titans 6 – Arizona Cardinals 24

What Actually Happened

(:19) 8-M.Badgley 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +1.83 EP
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +2.84 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 28, worth -0.24 EP
KICK +2.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.80 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 38, worth -0.86 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model