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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 5 at the 34

Tennessee Titans 13 – Arizona Cardinals 38

What Actually Happened

(8:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass incomplete short right to 11-A.Brown [49-K.Fitts].

The Three Options

GO +0.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.65 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 34, worth -1.14 EP
KICK +0.84 EP
  • 68% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 44, worth -1.61 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model