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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 7 at the 41

Arizona Cardinals 38 – Tennessee Titans 13

What Actually Happened

(2:07) 14-A.Lee punts 36 yards to TEN 5, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-28-C.Washington. PENALTY on TEN-3-C.Farley, Offensive Holding, 2 yards, enforced at TEN 5.

The Three Options

GO +0.78 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.07 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 41, worth -0.58 EP
KICK +0.95 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.51 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -0.60 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.26 EP