4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 16 at the 81

Tennessee Titans 0 – Arizona Cardinals 10

What Actually Happened

(6:54) 6-B.Kern punts 59 yards to ARI 22, Center-46-M.Cox. 4-R.Moore to ARI 35 for 13 yards (92-O.Adeniyi).

The Three Options

GO -2.71 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.95 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 81, worth -4.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 38, worth -1.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model