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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 3 at the 58

Arizona Cardinals 10 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(5:26) 14-A.Lee punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-46-A.Brewer, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.01 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 58, worth -3.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 18, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model