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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 4 at the 74

Tennessee Titans 0 – Arizona Cardinals 10

What Actually Happened

(3:10) (Punt formation) 21-M.Farley pass short middle to 37-A.Hooker to TEN 32 for 6 yards (86-D.Harris).

The Three Options

GO -1.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +2.03 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 74, worth -4.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.24 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 32, worth -1.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model