4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 12 at the 77

Cleveland Browns 29 – Kansas City Chiefs 27

What Actually Happened

(8:42) (Punt formation) 7-J.Gillan FUMBLES (Aborted) at CLE 10, and recovers at CLE 11. 7-J.Gillan to CLE 15 for 4 yards (85-M.Kemp).

The Three Options

GO -2.39 EP
What Happened
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.71 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 77, worth -4.42 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 34, worth -1.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.87 EP