Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- QB edge to KC: Patrick Mahomes (KC) +0.155 vs Baker Mayfield (CLE) -0.083 EPA/dropback
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 1
CLE
KC
Pulled fresh for 2021 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 07:58 TD CLE (7:58) 24-N.Chubb left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 6 – KC 0
- Q1 01:55 FG KC (1:55) 7-H.Butker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. CLE 8 – KC 3
- Q2 13:33 TD CLE (13:33) 80-J.Landry left end to KC 1 for 4 yards (98-T.Wharton; 38-L.Sneed). CLE-71-J.Wills was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. Cleveland challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 80-J.Landry left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE-71-J.Wills was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. CLE 14 – KC 3
- Q2 06:40 TD KC (6:40) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles right end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 15 – KC 9
- Q2 03:01 TD CLE (3:01) 24-N.Chubb left end for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 21 – KC 10
- Q3 07:33 TD KC (7:33) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 87-T.Kelce for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 22 – KC 16
- Q3 00:36 FG KC (:36) 7-H.Butker 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. CLE 22 – KC 20
- Q4 10:28 TD CLE (10:28) 27-K.Hunt left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 28 – KC 20
- Q4 10:24 TD KC (10:24) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 10-T.Hill for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN [96-J.Elliott]. CLE 29 – KC 26
- Q4 07:08 TD KC (7:08) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 87-T.Kelce for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 29 – KC 33
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 CLE 4th & 3 at the 15Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 48% p(FG) 94%
(9:18) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 81-A.Hooper to KC 10 for 5 yards (21-M.Hughes).
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Q1 KC 4th & 2 at the 10Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.93 EPp(convert) 54% p(FG) 97%
(1:55) 7-H.Butker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
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Q2 CLE 4th & 1 at the 5Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 65% p(FG) 98%
(13:33) 80-J.Landry left end to KC 1 for 4 yards (98-T.Wharton; 38-L.Sneed). CLE-71-J.Wills was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. Cleveland challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 80-J.Landry left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE-71-J.Wills was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
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Q2 KC 4th & 10 at the 45Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 39%
(1:45) 5-T.Townsend punts 44 yards to CLE 1, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-26-C.Lammons.
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Q3 KC 4th & 15 at the 25Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24% p(FG) 85%
(:36) 7-H.Butker 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
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Q4 CLE 4th & 12 at the 77Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.87 EPp(convert) 33%
(8:42) (Punt formation) 7-J.Gillan FUMBLES (Aborted) at CLE 10, and recovers at CLE 11. 7-J.Gillan to CLE 15 for 4 yards (85-M.Kemp).
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Q4 CLE 4th & 7 at the 72Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(5:30) 7-J.Gillan punts 52 yards to KC 20, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 17-M.Hardman pushed ob at KC 27 for 7 yards (52-E.Lee).
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Q4 KC 4th & 19 at the 60 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25%
(2:58) 5-T.Townsend punts 47 yards to CLE 13, Center-41-J.Winchester. 25-D.Felton to CLE 17 for 4 yards (26-C.Lammons).