Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 7 at the 72

Cleveland Browns 29 – Kansas City Chiefs 33

(5:30) 7-J.Gillan punts 52 yards to KC 20, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 17-M.Hardman pushed ob at KC 27 for 7 yards (52-E.Lee).

The Three Options

GO -1.79 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.52 EP
59% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 72, worth -4.10 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model