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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 19 at the 60

Kansas City Chiefs 33 – Cleveland Browns 29

What Actually Happened

(2:58) 5-T.Townsend punts 47 yards to CLE 13, Center-41-J.Winchester. 25-D.Felton to CLE 17 for 4 yards (26-C.Lammons).

The Three Options

GO -1.45 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.08 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 60, worth -2.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 19, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model