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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 5

Cleveland Browns 8 – Kansas City Chiefs 3

What Actually Happened

(13:33) 80-J.Landry left end to KC 1 for 4 yards (98-T.Wharton; 38-L.Sneed). CLE-71-J.Wills was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. Cleveland challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 80-J.Landry left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE-71-J.Wills was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

The Three Options

GO +3.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.83 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 5, worth -0.05 EP
KICK +1.65 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -0.98 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model