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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 7 at the 93

New York Giants 7 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(2:41) 9-R.Dixon punts 61 yards to DEN 32, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 11-D.Spencer to DEN 43 for 11 yards (82-K.Smith).

The Three Options

GO -2.76 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 86, worth +0.56 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 93, worth -5.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

PUNT -2.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 51, worth -2.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model