Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- QB edge to NYG: Daniel Jones (NYG) +0.164 vs Teddy Bridgewater (DEN) -0.002 EPA/dropback
- Wind 19 mph
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 1
DEN
NYG
Pulled fresh for 2021 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 17 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q2 13:21 FG DEN (13:21) 8-B.McManus 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin. DEN 3 – NYG 0
- Q2 09:07 TD NYG (9:07) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass deep left to 3-S.Shepard for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 3 – NYG 6
- Q2 00:13 TD DEN (:13) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short left to 81-T.Patrick for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 9 – NYG 7
- Q3 06:58 TD DEN (6:58) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short right to 85-A.Okwuegbunam for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 16 – NYG 7
- Q4 12:49 FG DEN (12:49) 8-B.McManus 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin. DEN 20 – NYG 7
- Q4 04:48 TD DEN (4:48) 25-M.Gordon up the middle for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 26 – NYG 7
- Q4 00:01 TD NYG (:01) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 27 – NYG 13
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 DEN 4th & 3 at the 59Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EPp(convert) 54%
(9:21) 6-S.Martin punts 37 yards to NYG 22, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, downed by DEN-12-M.Ford.
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Q1 NYG 4th & 10 at the 78Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(7:12) 9-R.Dixon punts 58 yards to DEN 20, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 11-D.Spencer to DEN 33 for 13 yards (31-K.Crossen).
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Q1 DEN 4th & 7 at the 37Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 53%
(2:10) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short middle to 81-T.Patrick to NYG 22 for 15 yards (23-L.Ryan).
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Q2 DEN 4th & 4 at the 5Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.98 EPp(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%
(13:21) 8-B.McManus 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin.
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Q2 NYG 4th & 7 at the 93Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(2:41) 9-R.Dixon punts 61 yards to DEN 32, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 11-D.Spencer to DEN 43 for 11 yards (82-K.Smith).
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Q2 DEN 4th & 2 at the 49Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 59% p(FG) 22%
(:48) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short middle to 14-C.Sutton to NYG 35 for 14 yards (23-L.Ryan).
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Q3 DEN 4th & 1 at the 4Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 65% p(FG) 98%
(6:58) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short right to 85-A.Okwuegbunam for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q4 DEN 4th & 3 at the 18Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EPp(convert) 48% p(FG) 91%
(12:49) 8-B.McManus 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin.
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Q4 NYG 4th & 4 at the 46Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47% p(FG) 28%
(10:05) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones scrambles up the middle to DEN 38 for 8 yards (31-J.Simmons).
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Q4 NYG 4th & 6 at the 6Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 98%
(6:30) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass incomplete short right to 19-K.Golladay (23-K.Fuller).
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Q4 NYG 4th & 15 at the 21 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.83 EPp(convert) 24% p(FG) 88%
(3:01) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass incomplete deep left to 19-K.Golladay. Penalty on NYG-71-W.Hernandez, Illegal Use of Hands, declined.
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Q4 DEN 4th & 6 at the 75 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(1:58) 6-S.Martin punts 41 yards to NYG 34, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 21-J.Peppers to NYG 36 for 2 yards (12-M.Ford).