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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 4

Denver Broncos 10 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(6:58) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short right to 85-A.Okwuegbunam for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +4.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.16 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 4, worth +0.14 EP
KICK +1.83 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -0.83 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model