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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 15 at the 21

New York Giants 7 – Denver Broncos 27

What Actually Happened

(3:01) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass incomplete deep left to 19-K.Golladay. Penalty on NYG-71-W.Hernandez, Illegal Use of Hands, declined.

The Three Options

GO +0.64 EP
What Happened
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.30 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -0.85 EP
KICK +1.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 31, worth -1.33 EP
PUNT -0.63 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.83 EP