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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 59

Denver Broncos 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(9:21) 6-S.Martin punts 37 yards to NYG 22, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, downed by DEN-12-M.Ford.

The Three Options

GO -0.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.96 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 59, worth -3.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -1.01 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 18, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP