Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 75

Denver Broncos 27 – New York Giants 7

(1:58) 6-S.Martin punts 41 yards to NYG 34, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 21-J.Peppers to NYG 36 for 2 yards (12-M.Ford).

The Three Options

GO -1.89 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +0.42 EP
56% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 75, worth -3.71 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model