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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 10 at the 78

New York Giants 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(7:12) 9-R.Dixon punts 58 yards to DEN 20, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 11-D.Spencer to DEN 33 for 13 yards (31-K.Crossen).

The Three Options

GO -2.17 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.76 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 78, worth -4.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 35, worth -1.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model