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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 7 at the 37

Denver Broncos 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(2:10) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short middle to 81-T.Patrick to NYG 22 for 15 yards (23-L.Ryan).

The Three Options

GO -0.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.76 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 37, worth -2.22 EP
KICK -0.50 EP
  • 53% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 46, worth -2.90 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model