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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 78

Green Bay Packers 3 – New Orleans Saints 24

What Actually Happened

(1:42) 12-Aa.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 17-D.Adams (23-M.Lattimore).

The Three Options

GO -0.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.72 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 78, worth -4.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.97 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 35, worth -1.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model