4th & Data
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GB Away

Green Bay Packers

HC Matt LaFleur
@
NO Home

New Orleans Saints

HC Sean Payton
Sunday 2021-09-12 · 16:25 TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville US ☀️ Clear Spread -4.0 O/U 49.0

Win Probability

GB
56.1%
NO
43.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Neutral site — no home-field edge
  • QB edge to GB: Jameis Winston (NO) -0.037 vs Aaron Rodgers (GB) -0.038 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

GB 24
–
NO 22
Projected margin: GB by 2 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

GB

Vernon Scott S Out Hamstring
Za'Darius Smith LB Questionable Back
Tyler Lancaster DT Questionable Back

NO

Ken Crawley CB Out Hamstring
Tre'Quan Smith WR Out Hamstring
James Hurst T Questionable Knee
Marshon Lattimore CB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

GB 3
–
NO 38

Prediction missed by 37 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:05 FG NO (11:05) 6-A.Rosas 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin. GB 0 – NO 3
  • Q2 14:24 TD NO (14:24) (Shotgun) 2-J.Winston pass short middle to 41-A.Kamara for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 0 – NO 9
  • Q2 01:14 TD NO (1:14) 2-J.Winston pass short middle to 83-J.Johnson for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN [52-R.Gary]. GB 0 – NO 16
  • Q2 00:04 FG GB (:04) 2-M.Crosby 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez. GB 3 – NO 17
  • Q3 03:14 TD NO (3:14) (Shotgun) 2-J.Winston pass short middle to 80-C.Hogan for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 3 – NO 23
  • Q4 15:00 TD NO (15:00) (Shotgun) 2-J.Winston pass short left to 83-J.Johnson for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 3 – NO 30
  • Q4 10:55 TD NO (10:55) 2-J.Winston pass deep left to 11-D.Harris for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 3 – NO 37

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NO 4th & 7 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 83%

    (11:05) 6-A.Rosas 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

  • Q1 GB 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (8:53) (Shotgun) 12-Aa.Rodgers pass short left to 83-M.Valdes-Scantling to GB 37 for 3 yards (22-C.Gardner-Johnson).

  • Q1 GB 4th & 9 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (7:19) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 38 yards to NO 24, Center-43-H.Bradley, downed by GB-81-J.Deguara.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 14 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (11:17) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 47 yards to NO 20, Center-43-H.Bradley, out of bounds.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 7 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 49%

    (5:08) (Shotgun) 2-J.Winston pass short right to 83-J.Johnson to GB 29 for 12 yards (23-J.Alexander; 26-D.Savage).

  • Q2 NO 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 99%

    (1:14) 2-J.Winston pass short middle to 83-J.Johnson for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN [52-R.Gary].

  • Q3 NO 4th & 11 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 27%

    (6:22) 4-B.Gillikin punts 45 yards to GB 5, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-88-T.Montgomery.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 1 at the 78
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 73%

    (1:42) 12-Aa.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 17-D.Adams (23-M.Lattimore).

  • Q4 GB 4th & 15 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (13:14) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 59 yards to NO 21, Center-43-H.Bradley. 11-D.Harris to NO 34 for 13 yards (44-T.Summers).

  • Q4 GB 4th & 5 at the 48
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 31%

    (7:12) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 32 yards to NO 16, Center-43-H.Bradley, out of bounds.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 4 at the 78 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (4:09) 4-B.Gillikin punts 58 yards to GB 20, Center-49-Z.Wood. 8-Am.Rodgers to GB 37 for 17 yards (88-T.Montgomery; 38-J.Heath).

  • Q4 GB 4th & 1 at the 21 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 90%

    (2:10) (Shotgun) 32-K.Hill up the middle to NO 19 for 2 yards (70-C.Ringo; 50-A.Dowell).