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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 15 at the 80

Green Bay Packers 3 – New Orleans Saints 31

What Actually Happened

(13:14) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 59 yards to NO 21, Center-43-H.Bradley. 11-D.Harris to NO 34 for 13 yards (44-T.Summers).

The Three Options

GO -2.72 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.54 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 80, worth -4.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 37, worth -2.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model