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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 5 at the 48

Green Bay Packers 3 – New Orleans Saints 38

What Actually Happened

(7:12) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 32 yards to NO 16, Center-43-H.Bradley, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.94 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 48, worth -2.34 EP
KICK -1.06 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.36 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 14, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP