4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 4 at the 78

New Orleans Saints 38 – Green Bay Packers 3

What Actually Happened

(4:09) 4-B.Gillikin punts 58 yards to GB 20, Center-49-Z.Wood. 8-Am.Rodgers to GB 37 for 17 yards (88-T.Montgomery; 38-J.Heath).

The Three Options

GO -1.68 EP
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.76 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 78, worth -4.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 35, worth -1.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model