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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 21

Green Bay Packers 3 – New Orleans Saints 38

What Actually Happened

(2:10) (Shotgun) 32-K.Hill up the middle to NO 19 for 2 yards (70-C.Ringo; 50-A.Dowell).

The Three Options

GO +2.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.02 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -0.76 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
  • 90% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 31, worth -1.23 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model