4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 14 at the 67

Green Bay Packers 0 – New Orleans Saints 10

What Actually Happened

(11:17) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 47 yards to NO 20, Center-43-H.Bradley, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.08 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.31 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 67, worth -3.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 25, worth -1.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model