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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 5 at the 9

New England Patriots 0 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(10:21) 6-N.Folk 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +2.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.96 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 9, worth -0.14 EP
KICK +1.81 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21, worth -0.88 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP