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MIA Away

Miami Dolphins

HC Brian Flores
@
NE Home

New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
Sunday 2021-09-12 · 16:25 Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US 💨 Windy Spread 3.5 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

MIA
43.4%
NE
56.6%
💨 Windy

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Mac Jones (NE): +0.121 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

MIA 22
–
NE 23
Projected margin: NE by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

MIA

Austin Jackson T Questionable Illness
Preston Williams WR Questionable Foot

NE

Malcolm Perry WR Out Foot
Nelson Agholor WR Questionable Ankle
Yodny Cajuste T Questionable Hamstring
Jalen Mills S Questionable Ankle
Ronnie Perkins LB Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIA 17
–
NE 16

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:35 TD MIA (5:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa right tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on NE-91-D.Wise, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs. MIA 6 – NE 0
  • Q2 10:21 FG NE (10:21) 6-N.Folk 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. MIA 7 – NE 3
  • Q2 02:35 TD NE (2:35) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 15-N.Agholor for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN [52-E.Roberts]. MIA 7 – NE 9
  • Q2 00:03 FG MIA (:03) 7-J.Sanders 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-5-M.Palardy. MIA 10 – NE 10
  • Q3 10:58 TD MIA (10:58) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 17-J.Waddle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 16 – NE 10
  • Q3 02:54 FG NE (2:54) 6-N.Folk 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. MIA 17 – NE 13
  • Q4 10:39 FG NE (10:39) 6-N.Folk 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. MIA 17 – NE 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NE 4th & 17 at the 37
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 56%

    (10:43) 7-J.Bailey punts 37 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 5 at the 9
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 97%

    (10:21) 6-N.Folk 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 10 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 19%

    (9:19) 5-M.Palardy punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Touchback.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 6 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (7:52) 7-J.Bailey punts 62 yards to MIA 2, Center-49-J.Cardona. 19-J.Grant pushed ob at MIA 20 for 18 yards (23-K.Dugger).

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 5 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (6:16) 5-M.Palardy punts 37 yards to NE 38, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 80-G.Olszewski to NE 37 for -1 yards (57-B.Scarlett; 86-M.Hollins).

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 12 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 73%

    (:03) 7-J.Sanders 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 8 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 84%

    (2:54) 6-N.Folk 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 15 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (1:27) 5-M.Palardy punts 51 yards to NE 29, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 80-G.Olszewski to NE 43 for 14 yards (33-J.Perry, 86-M.Hollins). PENALTY on NE-9-M.Judon, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at NE 43.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 4 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 94%

    (10:39) 6-N.Folk 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.