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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 64

New England Patriots 3 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(7:52) 7-J.Bailey punts 62 yards to MIA 2, Center-49-J.Cardona. 19-J.Grant pushed ob at MIA 20 for 18 yards (23-K.Dugger).

The Three Options

GO -1.04 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.30 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 64, worth -3.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 22, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model