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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 17 at the 37

New England Patriots 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(10:43) 7-J.Bailey punts 37 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.01 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.83 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 37, worth -1.55 EP
KICK +0.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 46, worth -2.33 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model