Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 15 at the 80

Miami Dolphins 17 – New England Patriots 13

What Actually Happened

(1:27) 5-M.Palardy punts 51 yards to NE 29, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 80-G.Olszewski to NE 43 for 14 yards (33-J.Perry, 86-M.Hollins). PENALTY on NE-9-M.Judon, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at NE 43.

The Three Options

GO -2.74 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.51 EP
70% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 80, worth -4.58 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model