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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 11 at the 61

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 14

What Actually Happened

(:10) 3-J.Berry punts 52 yards to CIN 9, Center-42-A.DePaola. 23-D.Phillips ran ob at CIN 24 for 15 yards (42-A.DePaola).

The Three Options

GO -1.18 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +0.56 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 61, worth -2.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 20, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model