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Minnesota Vikings

HC Mike Zimmer
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CIN Home

Cincinnati Bengals

HC Zac Taylor
Sunday 2021-09-12 · 13:00 Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati US 💨 Windy Spread -3.0 O/U 47.0

Win Probability

MIN
40.8%
CIN
59.2%
💨 Windy

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to CIN: Joe Burrow (CIN) +0.142 vs Kirk Cousins (MIN) -0.046 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

MIN 22
–
CIN 23
Projected margin: CIN by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

MIN

Anthony Barr LB Out Knee
Christian Darrisaw T Out Groin

CIN

Trae Waynes CB Out Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIN 24
–
CIN 27

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 06:42 TD MIN (6:42) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 19-A.Thielen for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 6 – CIN 0
  • Q2 01:52 TD CIN (1:52) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 85-T.Higgins for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN [94-D.Tomlinson]. MIN 7 – CIN 6
  • Q2 00:42 TD CIN (:42) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 1-J.Chase for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN-21-B.Breeland was injured during the play. MIN 7 – CIN 13
  • Q3 09:20 TD CIN (9:20) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 28-J.Mixon up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 7 – CIN 20
  • Q3 02:30 TD MIN (2:30) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 19-A.Thielen for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 13 – CIN 21
  • Q4 14:18 FG CIN (14:18) 2-E.McPherson 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. MIN 14 – CIN 24
  • Q4 09:26 TD MIN (9:26) 64-B.Brandel reported in as eligible. 33-D.Cook left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 20 – CIN 24
  • Q4 00:03 FG MIN (:03) 1-G.Joseph 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry. MIN 24 – CIN 24
  • Q5 00:05 FG CIN (:05) 2-E.McPherson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. MIN 24 – CIN 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 13 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (11:03) 3-J.Berry punts 39 yards to CIN 22, Center-42-A.DePaola. 23-D.Phillips to CIN 30 for 8 yards (43-C.Bynum).

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 9 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (8:28) 10-K.Huber punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Harris, Touchback.

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 6 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (7:11) 3-J.Berry punts 46 yards to CIN 30, Center-42-A.DePaola. 23-D.Phillips to CIN 45 for 15 yards (43-C.Bynum).

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 12 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (5:08) 10-K.Huber punts 47 yards to MIN 10, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook.

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 5 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 31%

    (:03) 10-K.Huber punts 37 yards to MIN 9, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (1:23) 3-J.Berry punts 61 yards to CIN 13, Center-42-A.DePaola. 23-D.Phillips to CIN 25 for 12 yards (20-H.Hand).

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 11 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (:10) 3-J.Berry punts 52 yards to CIN 9, Center-42-A.DePaola. 23-D.Phillips ran ob at CIN 24 for 15 yards (42-A.DePaola).

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 1 at the 25
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 83%

    (10:59) 9-J.Burrow right guard to MIN 23 for 2 yards (94-D.Tomlinson).

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 16 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (5:41) 3-J.Berry punts 41 yards to CIN 18, Center-42-A.DePaola. 23-D.Phillips to CIN 21 for 3 yards (45-T.Dye).

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 1 at the 70
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (3:20) 28-J.Mixon right tackle to CIN 30 for no gain (59-N.Vigil).

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 4 at the 24
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 84%

    (2:30) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 19-A.Thielen for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 4 at the 35
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 61%

    (14:18) 2-E.McPherson 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 13 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (7:26) 10-K.Huber punts 43 yards to MIN 32, Center-46-C.Harris, out of bounds. {Ball tipped at the line by Min 57}

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 18 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (5:05) 3-J.Berry punts 51 yards to CIN 25, Center-42-A.DePaola, downed by MIN-91-S.Weatherly.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 3 at the 47 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 29%

    (1:55) 10-K.Huber punts 42 yards to MIN 5, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-17-S.Morgan.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 4 at the 55 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (:37) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 17-K.Osborn to CIN 49 for 6 yards (21-M.Hilton).