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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 1 at the 25

Cincinnati Bengals 14 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(10:59) 9-J.Burrow right guard to MIN 23 for 2 yards (94-D.Tomlinson).

The Three Options

GO +2.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.54 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25, worth -0.84 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
  • 83% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 35, worth -1.81 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model