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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 16 at the 59

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 21

What Actually Happened

(5:41) 3-J.Berry punts 41 yards to CIN 18, Center-42-A.DePaola. 23-D.Phillips to CIN 21 for 3 yards (45-T.Dye).

The Three Options

GO -1.48 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.00 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 59, worth -3.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 18, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model