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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 13 at the 61

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(11:03) 3-J.Berry punts 39 yards to CIN 22, Center-42-A.DePaola. 23-D.Phillips to CIN 30 for 8 yards (43-C.Bynum).

The Three Options

GO -1.78 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.58 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 61, worth -3.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 20, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model