Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 18 at the 76

Minnesota Vikings 21 – Cincinnati Bengals 24

(5:05) 3-J.Berry punts 51 yards to CIN 25, Center-42-A.DePaola, downed by MIN-91-S.Weatherly.

The Three Options

GO -2.50 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.71 EP
73% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 76, worth -4.07 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model