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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 47

Cincinnati Bengals 24 – Minnesota Vikings 21

What Actually Happened

(1:55) 10-K.Huber punts 42 yards to MIN 5, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-17-S.Morgan.

The Three Options

GO -0.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +0.65 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 47, worth -2.13 EP
KICK -1.07 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.15 EP
PUNT -0.88 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 13, worth -0.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model